Ima Short | Wall Street Memes

With bombs, probably…

Construction projects, buying concert tickets, untangling cables and going to war all seem to have one thing in common and that’s that they all take waaaay longer than you’d expect. It feels like every modern war has had a ‘this will be done by Christmas’ mentality, and this Iran ‘conflict’ is no exception.

What started as just a simple assassination turned into a bombing campaign and now seems to be an all out war pulling in much of the world, if not militarily, at certainly economically.

And just when everyone’s hoping the temperature will be turned down, Iran starts sabre-rattling again saying, that they would target “economic centres and banks” and “destroy” the global economy. No! Not the banks! We need those!

The Iran with a plan

Speaking to Reuters, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said, “Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on the regional stability which you have destabilised.”

I mean, he ain’t wrong.

Of course, this is a threat from America’s enemy in this war so take that with a pinch of salt, but with oil already topping $100 per barrel, and the strait of Hormuz still an active warzone, we are likely to see that figure climbing for a while.

Even with Russia’s oil that we supposedly don’t want…

So who’s to say? But until this all gets cleared up, I’m putting my money into windmills.

Graphs, graphs, graphs, who doesn’t love a good graph, huh? Do you know the great thing about graphs? You can make them say whatever you like.

Case in point: this viral X post from Against Wall Street (no relation) in which they line up Bitcoin price graphs from 2022 and 2026 to imply that a big crash is on the horizon.

And yeah, when you put a big yellow line over the top of things it’s hard not to see what they’re seeing, but let’s look closer, shall we?

Bitcoin graph X post — Exhibit AAHHHH!!!

First up is the fact that the comparison is between two different price points (obviously, I guess), but more importantly, they’re completely different periods, May-June for 2022 and Feb-March for 2026. And not even that, they don’t cover the same length of time. The ‘26 one is way more spread out but I guess you just have to imagine it’s squished?

Which brings us to the main point which is that even the yellow lines don’t actually line up. These are different lines guys! Every angle is slightly different. I mean, yeah, asset price is going to up and then down and then up again but that doesn’t mean it’s the same thing. Anyone can draw lines over things and make them look the same. And like, I know that they do look spookily similar but only similar, not identical.

I’d like to point you towards this website, you’ve probably come across it, it’s called ‘spurious correlations’, have a click through some random ones, it’s really entertaining. But it just goes to show that, say it with me: correlation does not equal causation. Vaguely similar looking graphs can always be found and made to look like that means something.

Bitcoin? When Did That Ever Go Down?

Even if Bitcoin was doing exactly the same thing as before, this stuff is unpredictable, right? That’s the whole point? Why would this exact up and down from four years ago mean that this exact up and down will lead to the same next thing? Could be completely different guys.

Look, I’m not an expert in this (can you tell?) but it seems to me that people are desperate for any kind of certainty about what’s going to happen next. Even if the info is bogus, they’d rather have the feeling of security over the terror of uncertainty.

And especially when there’s money to be made, these things spread like wildfire. I guess that’s what keeps economists employed, doesn’t it?

Sure, maybe I’m wrong and Bitcoin really will dip exactly the way Against Wall Street predicts but I’m just saying, keep your wits about you, yeah? Don’t fall for everything you see. Alright, you go have fun now, I’ll see you back here for dinner.

But we already knew things were a little fucked, didn’t we?

The Strait of Hormuz, artery for 20% of the world’s oil is blocked and oil prices have skyrocketed. Well, someone who maybe knows what they’re talking about has gone full ‘the end is nigh’ and it’s got everyone spooked.

S&P Global vice chair Daniel Yergin recently penned an essay for the Financial Times explaining that this “nightmare scenario” of wild oil prices will “send the world economy plummeting into a deep recession.” …Great.

The “world is looking at the biggest disruption in oil production in history as well as a resounding shock to global gas markets,” Yergin continued. “The key question for global energy markets now is the duration of this explosive war.”

My vote is never and we just go full Mad Max.

And if all that sounds like we’ve been here before, well we have.

It’s 2008 again, always has been…

Alright, sit down, shut up and strap on because I’m about to give you an economics lesson you’ll never forget.

It’s 2026. Trump just bombed Iran, sparking a regional war, blocking the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil prices soaring to above $100 a barrel with no signs of slowing down.

It’s 2008. Oil prices are sitting steady at around $50-$70/bbl (Brazilian but lift) when BOOM. July 2008. Prices rocket to $147 per Brazilian butt lift. …Sound familiar?

So why did this happen twice and what can we learn so this doesn’t happen a third time? Well, strap on, because I’m about to give you… wait, I already said that.

It’s all basic economics, mate. There are innumerable factors that economists still debate to this day, but in just one word: the-‘08-oil-spike-was-due-to-strong-demand-and-a-stagnant-supply. China and India were booming, but the world just didn’t have the oil that they needed.

Combine this with geopolitical panic and you’ve got a recipe for what very much looks like 2026. You had a pipeline explosion in Nigeria, North Korean missile tests, hurricane Kartina and just two years before, Israel v Lebanon plus Iran nuclear fears.

Historically these kinds of political crises stoke fears of war and supply chain collapse which encourages stockpiling which leads to price hikes. Then when war happens and the supply chain does collapse, oil becomes more scarce and the prices go up regardless.

And in case you thought this was just about oil, think again because oil is everything. In 2008 for example, rising oil prices meant that energy costs went up, delivered goods became more expensive due to higher fuel costs and consumers were pushed into spending less.

And less consumer spending means what? That’s right: a recession.

So yes, the Iran war and rising oil prices is a recession indicator, like everything else going on at the moment. And what goes up must come down. Just like in 2008, that massive oil peak suddenly dipped causing all sorts of problems and we very well may see the same.

This is what we call a market correction, or equity correction: a 10% (or higher) drop in a stock index’s value. To some extent, a drop like that can be eaten, but when it drops any lower, say 20%, that’s when we’re in bear market territory and things get a lot more dicey.

So what can we do? Well, unless you’re Donald Trump, Jerome Powell or Jesus Christ himself, not freaking much because we are all at the whims of the laws of economics, buffeted about by the ocean of history.

But at least this time we can look back on 2008 and see what’s coming. Iran and oil costs are steering us into a massive economic storm, no doubt about it. All you can do is tie down anything not bolted to the floor and open your umbrella.

ChatGPT, Should I Short AI?

Like the pharaoh’s architects imprisoned in the very tomb they helped build, thousands of workers at Oracle are now being replaced by AI.

But this wasn’t all by design as Larry Ellison’s tech company may have overreached. Now Larry’s scaling back his data center expansion in Abilene, Texas, and downscaling his cloud computing division.

For AI ride-or-dies, it’s a worrying sign when the flagship adjusts course amid a cash crunch. But it’s not the only marker of an AI-induced economic downturn. Take a look below for the three top signals that the AI bubble might be finally bursting.

3. Amazon Blames AI For Outages

“Folks, as you likely know, the availability of the site and related infrastructure has not been good recently,” read an email briefing to workers. And a “contributing factor,” was “novel GenAI usage for which best practices and safeguards are not yet fully established.”

Does that mean Amazon’s turning its back on AI? Hell no, the company has doubled down on its commitment, firing 30,000 workers and demanding 80% of devs to use AI at least once a week.

So expect more outages in the near fut–

2. AI Infrastructure Is Trillions Of Dollars Behind Schedule

As Jensen Huang puts it, “We have only just begun this buildout,” Huang wrote. “We are a few hundred billion dollars into it. Trillions of dollars of infrastructure still need to be built.”

Bear in mind that tech firms have already invested $700 billion in AI expansion. For reference that’s larger than the GDP of Sweden, Israel, Argentina, more than the value of Disney, Nike, and Target combined, and, adjusted for inflation, enough to send humans to the moon twice over.

And still that’s not enough? Yeah, expect a squeeze very soon.

1. AI Might Become Nationalised

We’ve already seen the very public spat between the Pentagon, Anthropic and OpenAI and given the value the military and the government see in AI tech, some believe it’s only a matter of time before the government just starts taking what they want from the industry.

So can the AI industry survive a crash crunch, infrastructure malfunctions, delayed expansion and a potential government carving up?

Well, truth is it probably has to. Given how intertwined AI now is with the global economy, an AI bubble pop is simply not an option.

It’s 2008 again, always has been…

Alright, sit down, shut up and strap on because I’m about to give you an economics lesson you’ll never forget.

It’s 2026. Trump just bombed Iran, sparking a regional war, blocking the Strait of Hormuz and sending oil prices soaring to above $100 a barrel with no signs of slowing down.

It’s 2008. Oil prices are sitting steady at around $50-$70/bbl (Brazilian but lift) when BOOM. July 2008. Prices rocket to $147 per Brazilian butt lift. …Sound familiar?

So why did this happen twice and what can we learn so this doesn’t happen a third time? Well, strap on, because I’m about to give you… wait, I already said that.

And in case you thought this was just about oil, think again because oil is everything. In 2008 for example, rising oil prices meant that energy costs went up, delivered goods became more expensive due to higher fuel costs and consumers were pushed into spending less.

And less consumer spending means what? That’s right: a recession.

In 2017 Bulgaria had a massive stockpile of 213,500 Bitcoin but sold it all. Today that much would be worth $14,393,970,038.96 dollars. That’s not enough to wipe out its $37.1 billion national debt, despite what the headline says, but still…

Look, I just got this from a tweet and I started writing before I actually looked any of this up but what do you expect? Journalist integrity? I mean, you’re getting your information from Wall Street Memes Dot Com so who’s the real criminal here?

Bitcoin tweet — Don’t come after me. Blame @bestplayeratlas

Anyways…

Bulgaria’s Bitcoin blumber (lol, I meant to say ‘blunder’) will go down as one of history’s biggest fumbles, but it’s not the first time people have lost out on a bit’o’coin. Read on to learn more:

Germany’s Billion Dollar Blunder

In 2024, Germany seized around 50,000 Bitcoin worth about $2.2 billion and immediately dumped it into the market. Bitcoin obviously later surged and if they’d just held on a bit(coin) longer, they could have made gains of $3.6 billion. Damn girl. Sucks to be German right now.

Bitcoin Pizza

I’m sure you’ve heard about it, the very first Bitcoin transaction in history. On May 22, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz made history by trading 10,000 BTC for two Papa John’s pizzas. Well, now that pizza would be worth $672,494,956.28 and Laszlo can still be heard crying into his garlic dip to this day.

Bored Ape Mispricing

Before Bored Apes were boring, NFT trader Maxnaut listing Bored Ape Yacht Club #3547 for 0.75 ETH (~$3,000) instead of 75 ETH (~$300,000). A bot purchased the listing instantly and relisted it for full market value, netting an enormous profit. Yikes.

Crypto.com’s Unrefundable Refund

In 2021, Crypto.com refunded a $100 to an Australian user but accidentally transferred A$10.5 million (~$7 million USD) due to a field entry mistake. Thevamanogari Manivel, used the funds to buy property and distribute gifts before the exchange discovered the error months later during an audit. The site recovered most of the money in a lawsuit but still lost out big.

Tether Mints $5 Billion USDT By Accident

In July 2019, Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, USDT, accidentally minted $5 billion worth of tokens on the Tron blockchain while performing a routine chain swap. The mistake happened during a migration process between Omni and Tron networks, when the operator misentered a decimal value. Those pesky periods. Women and Bitcoin miners worst enemy.

Shout out to this article that I cribbed those last three entries from because cba today. You think these were massive fumbles? Babes, I’m fumbling my whole life.

AWS! Amazon Web Services, the cloud computing firm that is down more than its up, just reported another outage, but this time it really wasn’t their fault.

On Sunday, 4:30pm local time, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Middle East, Earth, Space… one of Amazon’s data centers was HIT with an unidentified object. That’s right, an ALIEN.

The impact sparked a fire that required power to be shut off whilst the fire department put out the blaze.

During this period a number of services were down including my gf’s Skype because I was trying to call her on Skype and she said she couldn’t pick up because of the Amazon Web Services outage in Dubai and I said, but you’re not in Dubai we both live in Buffalo. And she said, no, but it’s still affected her connection, she can’t video call right now. And I said, OK, then, I’ll just come over, I’m only a seventeen minute drive away and she said no, don’t come over, it’s really bad, she’s been electrocuted by the Skype AWS outage and I said Ok, well, I’m definitely coming over and then she said she wanted to break up with me.

It remains UNCLEAR if the AWS outage and the subsequent deterioration of my relationship was caused by the Iran/US conflict that’s happening right now but it’s does seem to coincide suspiciously well. Who knows. What do I look like, someone who knows these things? I’m going through a lot right now, please let me be.

This news follows a streak of shitty performance issues from AWS. A couple of weeks ago it was reported that the December outage was caused by an AI coding bot (lol) in a fine example of tech eating itself.

So that’s interesting.

THE PRICE OF OIL IS UP! PEOPLE ARE DEAD! AMERICA HAS ATTACKED THE MIDDLE EAST! THE PRESIDENT HAS KILLED A FOREIGN DICTATOR!

Hehe, now, I know what you’re thinking, but no, this isn’t 1949, 1953, 1958, 1963, 1979, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2003, 2014 or 2020, no, this is completely different.

America is ISOLATIONIST now, haven’t you heard? Our America first president pulled our troops out of the middle east. HAVEN’T YOU HEARD! We’re not going to get involved in Israel or Iran or Lebanon or Syria or blahblablahblablah.

No, this isn’t a war because legally Congress would have to approve that. No, this is a conflict, completely different. These are limited airstrikes. This isn’t a full scale war (even though it’s spilled over into multiple countries).

But you’re not interested in any of this are you? No, you’re interested in your MONEY. Well, here’s a short list of all the assets and stocks hit by this war, sorry, conflict. Enjoy:

OIL

Mentioned at the top, oil prices have spiked because, don’t you know? Oil comes from the middle of the east? You thought it was shat out by dinosaurs? What? What is wrong with you? No, oil comes from the blood of dead civilians. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY.

STOCK FUTURES

Somehow affected by the present, American stocks tumbled following the news with Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures (DJIAF!) down 1%. Which doesn’t sound a lot but it is if it’s your one percent.

INFLATION

Is up, of course. So, good luck with that house you were planning on never buying because now it’s definitely not happening.

GOLD

The stability indicator. Gold is up. That’s not a good sign for anyone.

AMAZON

Amazon’s data center or something was hit or something? Idk, I’ve not read up on it, yet, that’s the second article I’ve got to write. I’ll let you know when it’s up.

OUR ATTENTION SPANS

I mean, I don’t know about you guys, but I can only handle about one major news story a week. Now that this war has come around, Epstein, Venezuela, Gaza, Ukraine have all been completely pushed out of my brain. I can’t wait for next week’s story that’ll push out this one too!

OH, YEAH AND ALSO PEOPLE AND STUFF

Sorry, forgot to mention like, people and property and infrastructure and soldiers and government regimes and cars and airports and children and teddy bears probably have also been hit but that just goes without saying.

The company formally known as MicroStrategy (it’s just Strategy now) is officially the most shorted company in the world after Bitcoin took a massive 50% dip and Michael Saylor was spotted learning how to tie a noose.

Bearish investors have put money against 14% of the company’s entire market capitalisation which is just a bit harsh, isn’t it?

Bitcoin microstraegy short list — Goldman Sachs full list.

Strategy and Saylor previously had a massive win when Bitcoin reached an all time high (ATH) last year, but now that the party’s over, Saylor has reportedly lost billions and as one of the largest holders of Bitcoin the company is sat on a big pile of nothing.

But who’s to say that Bitcoin won’t turn around? If the crypto currency can rally and return to its previous form, all those shorts will be obliterated and Saylor will be laughing all the way to the returns desk at the noose store.

Maybe we can see another GameStop situation, where the internet rallies behind a cause and pumps Bitcoin up to kill the shorts.

Hey, we’re Wall Street Memes, birthed from Wall Street Bets and the GameStop saga and all that marketing copy. We’re the home of the degen and the hottest memes and etc. etc. We’ve got a community that can rally behind us right? With just my words, we can bring about an end of the shorts and save our beloved Strategy, right?!

So, who’s with me? I said, WHO’S WITH ME!!

…

Ok, I guess this isn’t the same situation at all. Fine, but don’t come crying to me when I’m rich and you’re dead.

RIP Bitcoin. It was beautiful while it lasted.

President Donald F. Trump just broke an all time record for longest State Of Union address and lowest approval ratings but still put on a brave face and said everything is alright.

Ignoring rising costs for everything, soaring house prices, unrest in Minnesota, Trump rambled on about how he’s doing great and everything’s fine and there’s nothing to worry about so be quiet please.

Wall Street reacted a little, I guess, but this is just a speech, it’s not any substantive change so there wasn’t much to react to I suppose. Traders are much more focused on Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report which matters a lot more really.

In order to pad out the run time, Trump paraded out Olympic medal winners, Charlie Kirk’s wife and JD Vance was there for some reason??

But perhaps the highlight of the event was when every single member of the republican party was removed after disrupting Trump’s speech by whooping and chanting “U.S.A.! U.S.A.!” repeatedly.

House Speaker Mike Johnson banged his gavel and instructed the Republicans to “Uphold and maintain decorum in the House and to cease and further disruptions” multiple times. However, the representatives were simply too excited by Trump’s words and had to be forcibly removed from the chamber by the sergeant at arms.

The chanting and cheers continued as the republican representatives resisted their ejection in what many are now calling “reverse January 6th”.

“I don’t know why we were kicked out, sure they were disruptions, but they were positive disruptions,” explained Senator Ted Cruz outside the Capitol. “Yes, I was chanting at the top of my lungs but how could you not? It’s not everyday you get to meet your second favorite president.”

When Trump was finally able to continue highlighting his accomplishments, Rep. Johnson noted that Democrats were also disruptive by engaging in subtle and not so subtle protests against the president. Some wore badges saying, “RELEASE THE FILES” and “I LIKE ROCKS” (but that last one might have been about something else).

The House Speaker then called for all these members to be ejected from the chamber as well and finally Rep. Johnson ejected himself for banging his gavel too loudly. This left the building entirely empty but for Trump.

Undeterred, the president continued his speech to an empty room. It is unclear what was said as no one was their to witness it. Republicans are now stumped as to what to do policy-wise as the popular riddle asks, “If a Trump makes a speech in an empty congress hall and no one is there to hear it, do his tariffs still apply?”

Rep. Al Green’s whereabouts remain unknown although he is now presumed dead.

Stick with Wall Street Meams Dot Com for more political discourse that’s up to the minute (but obviously not this exact minute, or the next one, just, I meant whatever minute I’m writing about, leave me alone.).

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With bombs, probably…

The Iran with a plan

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